NEW, Nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
Nuclear War between India and Pakistan is knocking the door. From the VP of GDR.org

S.Asia nuclear war could kill 12 million-US report

 
Subj: Nuclear War between India and Pakistan is knocking the door.
Date: 5/22/02 11:20:19 AM Eastern Daylight Time
From:    sarker@RRRRRRRRR
To:   news@gdr.org

Dear  Mr. Fred ,

Armies of both India and Pakistan are at dagger's drawn and at any time a
full scale war might flare up. Parvez Musharraf, the
Military ruler of Pakistan has  recently  made it clear to the Press that
in the event of any war with  India , he will not hesitate to use
Nuclear Bombs. On the other hand ,die hard Indian politicians are clearly
decalaring that Pakistan to be taught a good lesson
with a heavy military strike so that it stops sending terrorists to kill
innocent Indians.  It is true , Pakistan   in recent months
have accelerated its guerilla attacks upon  military and civilian targets
in India including attack of Indian Parliament. Incidentally,
Pakistan's leadership claim that Pakistan does not know what is terrorism
and remain abstain from this type of henious jobs.
But evidences claerly indicate that all these  terrorists are coming from
Pakistan and  Pakistan army offering training to them.

The recent developments alongside border areas between India and Paksitan
indicate that a war is inevitable  and it is urgently needed  both by the
Indian Prime Minster ,Atal Behari Vajpei and Pakistani President General
Parvez Musharraf  because both of them are in great trouble for running
their administration. They need war so that they can perpetuate their powers .

Pakistanis are finding it a high time for them to entangle in a war with
India. The reason is that American soldiers are now
stationed in Pakistan and if there is a war with India, America would help
Pakistan  to fight against  India.

On the other side. Indian leadership eyeing it as opportune moment to
punish Pakistan because Pakistan is a country
which harbousr fundamentalists  engaged in terrorism . If there is war with
Pakistan, world opinino will go in favour of
India because  Pakistan is a  terrorist state.

Analysts indicate that  it is too early to predict when the war between
India and Pakistan will happen but chances are
at 99% . However, if there flares up a full scale war, Pakistan  would use
nuclear bombs at the outset because Pakistan
would not be able to continue such a costly war for a long time. On the
other side, India would allow Pakistan use
Nuclear bomb first over India so that it can get ample support by
International community to teach  Pakistan a good
lesson . India is 7 times bigger in population , 15 times bigger in sizes
than Pakistan and also 4 times bigger in
nuclear stockpiles , so  Pakistan will have to suffer devastating  losses
in  this war.

Pakistan has fought with India 3 wars  such as in 1948, 1965 and 1971 and
all the three tournament Pakistan has
suffered heavy defeat. In her war with India in 1971 , about 97,000
Pakistani soldiers had surrendered to Indian
Army in Dhaka  in December 16.

In case , US administration comes to protect Pakistan from the attack by
India ,in that case Russia might come to
help India to make it more difficult. Further , as 70%  people of Pakistan
are fanatic  ,they consider both Musharraf
and  Bush as enemies of Islam  - so military involvement by USA in war with
India would create more trouble for
Americans than Indians.  Instead of fighting with Indian army these
terrorists would fight against American army.
It is gathered that both Laden and Mullah Omar are alive and  are living in
north-west Pakistan  and  restructuring
Al-Quaida  network for  some unspecified missions against  USA.  If
American soldiers are allowed by Musharraf to
fight against India from the soil of Pakistan these Mullahs would not allow
it go undisturbed.

Pakistan is a rogue nation. During its history of 55  years, 35 years have
been ruled by Army junta so  democratic
atmosphere could not be developed there. These Junta have always patronized
Fundamentalists with money and arms
as result they  have become part of the administration. Thousands of
highly trained Fundamentalists are there in  Pakistan
equipped with highly sophisticated  weapons. AK-47 Rifle is just like a toy
to these terrorists.

The  war between Pakistan  and India would be coincided within  the western
part  of  India .As both  the countries
have developed long range missiles to attack the enemy targets , it is more
likely that this war would be  horrifying
and extremely costlier .

F. R. Sarker
Dhaka. Bangladesh

S.Asia nuclear war could kill 12 million-US report

By Deborah Zabarenko

WASHINGTON, May 31 (Reuters) - All-out nuclear war between India and Pakistan could kill as many as 12 million people and injure as many as 6 million, a Pentagon official said on Friday, citing a classified report.

Worries about a possible nuclear war in South Asia took center stage in Washington on Friday as the United States urged more than 60,000 U.S. citizens to leave India and Britain warned its nationals to consider getting out.

If the two neighbors disputing the territory of Kashmir unleashed all their nuclear weapons, the U.S. Defense Department report estimated it could cause between 9 million and 12 million deaths and between 2 million and 6 million injuries. That would make it the second most deadly war ever after World War Two.

"That's the worst-case scenario, if we have correctly guessed the number of weapons each side has, and their targets, and presuming they're all ground bursts versus air bursts," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

A nuclear warhead that explodes on the ground instead of in the air would create more fallout, the official said. But he said an air burst would have a wider footprint and cause more damage and injuries.

"The fatalities if they were air bursts would be slightly smaller by maybe a million, but ... that's still a very significant number," the official said.

The U.S. official estimated Pakistan has "several dozen" nuclear warheads and India has "a couple dozen" but declined to be more specific.

"In conventional military power, India probably has a two-and-a-half to one advantage over Pakistan," the official said. "Pakistan developed nuclear weapons to counter India's conventional power."

Even in a "limited" war, with 10 bombs exploding in the major cities of each country, more than 3 million people could die in the immediate blasts and fire and from radiation, according to calculations announced last week by Princeton University nuclear researchers.

The United States has been leading international pressure to bring India and Pakistan from the brink of war. Washington, which used its nuclear arsenal as a mutual deterrent with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, signed this month a treaty with Russia to slash the number of deployed nuclear warheads.

The United States is the only country that has used such warfare, dropping two atom bombs on Japan and killing more than an estimated 100,000 people almost immediately with many more dying in the following years. That attack came toward the end of World War Two, in which historians believe more than 30 million people may have died.

CLASSIFIED U.S. REPORT

The classified Defense Department report was issued in May, the official said, noting the report must be continually updated to reflect changing conditions.

"(This report is) something that we've had on the shelf but it needs to be updated with weather patterns, which would affect distribution of fallout and number of casualties," the official said.

The official said the coming monsoon season in South Asia would have to be taken into account, but did not specify what effect the winds and rain would have on the U.S. estimate of nuclear war damage in the region.

Death and injury estimates may be unrealistically high, the official said, because they are based on the assumption that every nuclear weapon would perform as designed and hit its target.

Pakistan would probably deliver its nuclear weapons aboard F-16 aircraft or on ballistic missiles, the official said, while India would be likely to use MiG-27 aircraft or ballistic missiles.

If Pakistan used its F-16s, it would encounter India's integrated air defense, the official said, adding, "To say that every F-16 would get through -- I don't know of any war planner who would make that assumption."

Asked whether Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld would be taking the classified report with him when he travels to South Asia next week to try to defuse tensions, the official would say only, "He certainly has the information."

05/31/02 18:15 ET
Copyright 2002 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All active hyperlinks have been inserted by AOL.


Keep the hope alive. Donate now.

Get a GDR T Shirt, Shirt, Mugs, Mousepads with our Web Store


BACK TO GDR.org